No iPhone do Ricardo… (9) Summer of 78, Yann Tiersen

A música que um Liberal usa no vídeo do casamento? Faz agora um ano usei esta:

Anúncios

Acção socialista

Aos Césares o que é dos Césares, a crónica de Alberto Gonçalves no Observador.

(…) Inês César, 25 anos, socióloga, é a mais recente aquisição da empresa municipal Gebalis, que a contratou à junta de freguesia de Alcântara, onde a jovem dera nas vistas na temporada 2016/17. O facto de ambas as instituições serem socialistas apenas prova a atenção que o PS dedica à formação e ao desenvolvimento de valores emergentes. O parentesco da dra. Inês com o presidente do partido apenas prova que o contributo dos Césares para o progresso nacional está longe de se esgotar.

Luísa, mulher de Carlos e reformada da coordenação dos Palácios da Presidência (uma coisa relevantíssima lá dos Açores, suponho), dispôs-se – sem concurso público que a senhora não é de perder tempo – a abdicar do sossego para coordenar a “estrutura de missão” para a criação da Casa da Autonomia (outra coisa lá dos Açores, nascida por proposta da coordenação dos Palácios da Presidência). Francisco César, filho de Carlos e de Luísa, é deputado regional, eleito pela primeira vez em lista encabeçada pelo pai, que lhe elogia, naturalmente babado, a “militância cívica” e a “sensibilidade”. Rafaela, mulher de Francisco e nora de Carlos e de Luísa, é chefe de gabinete da secretária regional adjunta para os Assuntos da Presidência, posto cuja enganadora insignificância não a impede de auferir justíssimos três mil e setecentos euros mensais. Horácio, irmão de Carlos, cunhado de Luísa e tio de Francisco, também saiu da reforma, após carreira incansável ao serviço da comunidade, para ser adjunto no falecido gabinete de João Soares. Patrocínia, mulher de Horácio e cunhada de Carlos e de Luísa, é assessora do Grupo Parlamentar do PS e brilha em simultâneo na junta de freguesia do Lumiar. E agora é Inês, sobrinha de Carlos, filha de Horácio e de Patrocínia e prima de Francisco, a despontar para o espírito missionário que abençoou aqueles genes. Antes, já existira o avô de Carlos (e bisavô de Francisco, etc.), que este confessou à “Sábado” ter sido presidente de junta, além do bisavô e do tio-bisavô de Carlos, dirigentes do Partido Socialista de Antero de Quental. Isto que se saiba, dado que a modéstia dos virtuosos (ou a falta de espaço) é capaz de obstar à divulgação de todos os casos. (…)

Se a consciência social e o amor à família configuram nepotismo, vou ali e não volto. Não quero viver numa sociedade subjugada à má-fé, que, ao invés de agradecer a oportunidade, se irrita por patrocinar uma família notável. O que vale é que os noticiários ligaram pouco ao assunto e preferiram concentrar-se nos – alerta para chavão – verdadeiros problemas dos portugueses. Os quais, a acreditar nos noticiários, não são nenhuns. (…)

Mixed messages on Qatar

Qatar Buys U.S. F-15s Days After Trump Says Country Funds Terrorism

Qatar said Wednesday it has signed a $12 billion deal to buy F-15 fighter jets from the United States — just days after President Donald Trump accused the country of being a “high-level” sponsor of terrorism.

The announcement came after the country’s defense minister met with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in Washington.

Continue reading “Mixed messages on Qatar”

A candidatura à Agência Europeia de Medicamentos e os deputados que temos

Será demasiado pedir aos deputados que se informem minimamente sobre aquilo que votam?

Aparentemente, sim: Os 12 deputados que levaram a hipocrisia longe demais. Por Paulo Ferreira.

Há pouco mais de um mês, no dia 11 de Maio, a Assembleia da República votou um “Voto de Saudação pelo apoio à candidatura de Portugal à sede da Agência Europeia de Medicamentos”, apresentado pelo PS e subscrito também pelo PSD onde se pode ler: “Na sequência do Brexit, as agências europeias sediadas no Reino Unido terão de ser relocalizadas e Portugal apresenta fortes argumentos para que Lisboa seja escolhida”; e, a terminar, “Assim, associando se aos fundamentos e objetivos acima expressos, a Assembleia da República, reunida em Plenário, saúda e apoia a candidatura de Portugal à fixação da sede da Agência Europeia de Medicamentos em Lisboa, como de interesse nacional”.
Portanto, trata-se do apoio à colocação da sede em Lisboa e não numa qualquer cidade portuguesa, a decidir.

E quem votou favoravelmente este texto? Todas as bancadas, todos os deputados presentes sem excepção. Foi aprovado por unanimidade, como bem lembrou esta quinta-feira – aos políticos e o aos jornalistas – Nuno Garoupa na sua página do Facebook.

Continue reading “A candidatura à Agência Europeia de Medicamentos e os deputados que temos”

Lindas histórias de amizade e de amor familiar

O meu texto desta semana no Observador.

‘Nenhum bom pai ou mãe de família resiste a uma eloquente história de amizade. Sabem quem retratou bem amizades? Hergé, com a amizade entre Tintin e o Capitão Haddock ou o jovem chinês Tchang. Para os amigos do mundo animal podemos também incluir Milou, que prescinde uma vez ou outra de roer uns saborosos ossos para ajudar Tintin.

Aprecio igualmente exemplos de dedicação à família. Trago à colação, por exemplo, Lord Arthur Saville, criação de Oscar Wilde, que por amor à sua futura mulher cometeu o crime que lhe cabia antes de casar. Considerava indigno e uma desconsideração pela sua prometida senhora entrar no estado de casamento com afazeres pendentes de natureza questionável.

É por ter tal enlevo por estas histórias de afetos que fiquei tão enternecida com o que se passou por estes dias para os lados dos amigos e familiares do PS. Ah, o gosto de termos gente a governar-nos que trata tão amorosamente de amigos e família.

Vejamos os Best Friends Forever António Costa e Lacerda Machado. Esse, o feliz contemplado com a nomeação para a administração da TAP, aquele negócio que o dito BFF do primeiro-ministro ajudou – tão generosa e desinteressadamente, fez tudo para o bem do país sem esperar nenhuma recompensa (pecuniária) – a trazer de novo para as garras do Estado. Ora sobre este pestilento assunto há alguns pontos a referir.

Um. Veem para que servem as empresas públicas? Os políticos podem aventar as tretas que se lembrarem, inventar benefícios para os consumidores, aludir falsamente a um qualquer interesse nacional (sei lá, como os balcões da CGD que vão fechar pelo motivo mais comum nas empresas privadas, o lucro, ou os voos que a TAP já não faz para o Porto). A verdade é mais prosaica: os políticos defendem a existência de empresas públicas porque querem ter nelas a possibilidade de colocar amigos recebendo simpáticos ordenados ou, ocasionalmente, emprateleirar inimigos. E enquanto existirem empresas públicas essa será a sua serventia. Clamar contra nomeações de amigos (pessoais ou políticos) ao mesmo tempo que se declara paixão ao setor empresarial do Estado é diletantismo de amantes de unicórnios ou hipocrisia de mal-intencionados. A única solução para impedir estas promiscuidades amistosas é não dar oportunidades. Que é como quem diz: privatizar as empresas públicas.’

O resto está aqui.

Uma história portuguesa, com certeza

Reza então assim a história:

  1. Em Fevereiro do corrente ano, Ministros sortidos e Primeiro Ministro manifestam-se a favor de Lisboa para receber a Agência Europeia do Medicamento; Margarida Marques diz que, como é óbvio de se ver, só pode ser em Lisboa. Afinal, que mais cidades têm hotéis e aeroportos, escolas ou jardins de infância, especialmente dos que falem estrangeiro? Tirando qualquer cidade que esteja num raio de 50 kms do Porto, Faro, Funchal ou até de Lisboa, apenas Lisboa, obviamente.

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  2. Importa aqui reiterar que a AEM deve mesmo ficar em Lisboa. Afinal, das cinco agências europeias sediadas em Espanha, nenhuma está em Madrid. E, como é bom de se ver, nós não somos provincianos como os espanhóis, por muito pouco óbvio que isso seja.
  3. Entretanto, António Costa jura que houve um parecer que dizia taxativamente que Lisboa era a melhor cidade para acolher a AEM, isto depois da visita a Londres para conhecer os escritórios actuais da AEM. O parecer é estranho, primeiro porque ninguém o viu, e segundo porque foi elaborado por uma comissão cujo nome é «Comissão de Candidatura Nacional para a instalação da Agência Europeia do Medicamento na cidade de Lisboa». Patético? Ainda não viu nada.
  4. Depois de outros se desdobrarem nas típicas desculpas que alimentam o círculo vicioso do centralismo, António Costa vem afinal jurar que tudo fez para que a AEM ficasse… em Lisboa? No Porto. Também ninguém sabe se isto é verdade, mas se uma fonte do PM o diz, então só pode ser verdade, e o Público faz o favor de noticiar a coisa como se fosse verdade: «Costa defendeu [estoicamente, como um grande estadista que é,] até ao limite candidatura do Porto à AEM». A nota é minha, o pensamento é do jornalista que copiou a peça da Lusa. O artigo é acompanhado de uma foto elucidativa, em que vemos Costa a tentar descobrir onde fica o Porto no mapa.

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  5. Como se tudo isto não fosse suficientemente mau, a notícia foi divulgada em primeira instância pela Lusa. A Lusa é uma instituição pública, ao serviço do Estado, que pelos vistos serve também para propaganda política, da fraquinha. O Público e o Observador cumpriram com diligência o que lhes foi encomendado, e reportaram a balela como se de uma verdade insofismável se tratasse.
  6. Razão tinha a D. Teresa, que mandou D. Afonso Henriques para Norte. O centralismo deste país não tem emenda.

Descubra as diferenças

Julgo ser hora do PS deixar a discursiva política e aderir à pantomina política, porque senão qualquer dia já não distinguimos as notícias das paródias do Inimigo Público:

O porta-voz do PS, João Galamba, afirma que o PSD “está transformado num partido estruturalmente aldrabão”.

Governo: Costa defendeu até ao limite candidatura do Porto à Agência Europeia do Medicamento

Um país alheado mas feliz

A minha crónica no ‘i’.

Um país alheado mas feliz

Uma semana que mistura folga com trabalho é o espelho de um país que combina lassidão com regozijo. A vida corre bem, o passado está longe, e mesmo quando reaparece, como no caso da EDP, fecha-se os olhos, respira-se fundo e esquece-se. Os supermercados estão cheios de livros sobre como lidar com a ansiedade e, pelo que vejo, os portugueses leram-nos.

Mas não só. As notícias sobre o crescimento económico têm sido fantásticas. Segundo o Eurostat, a economia portuguesa foi a quinta com maior crescimento da zona euro no primeiro trimestre deste ano. Por todo o lado vemos alegria. Um frenesi geral, qual tique marcelista, apoderou-se de Portugal.

Longe de mim estragar o relaxe nacional mas, ainda no passado dia 1 de Junho, o Banco de Portugal divulgou que a dívida pública se fixou em 247,4 mil milhões de euros – mais 3,9 mil milhões que no final de Março. Só para termos uma ideia, a dívida pública subiu em 2015 “apenas” 5,3 mil milhões de euros. Não quero estragar a alegria de António Costa, mas 3,9 mil milhões de euros em dois meses parece-me muito pior que 5,3 mil milhões num ano inteiro.

Mas há crescimento. É verdade. Só que à custa de mais dívida, ou seja, de empobrecimento. Veja-se bem como a economia cresce, mas estamos mais pobres. E não era a política que vinha mandar na economia? Há algo que me transcende na propaganda. O crescimento não é sustentado, deve-se ao que se passa no Magrebe, ao medo na Europa; ao êxodo dos franceses a que o governo de Macron porá termo. Mas a dívida fica. E paga-se.

GamerGate to Trump

Um artigo introdutório para quem vive fora da internet, via CNET.
Fenómenos como o que elegeu Trump não acontecem por acaso.

Feliz Dia Da Libertação De Impostos 2017!

Assumindo que a carga fiscal é sensivelmente igual à do ano passado (e uma vez que não consegui encontrar nenhum estudo relativamente a 2017), celebra-se hoje em Portugal, dia 15 de Junho, O Dia da Libertação de Impostos. O Dia da Libertação de Impostos representa o dia em que em média os trabalhadores deixam de trabalhar para o estado (apenas para pagar impostos e assim cumprir as suas obrigações fiscais) e passam a trabalhar para si. Na prática, somos todos trabalhadores do estado durante quase meio ano.

O gráfico abaixo representa a evolução do número de dias de trabalho necessários apenas para o pagamento de impostos desde 2000 (fonte, fonte, fontefontefonte, fonte e fonte).

Porque É Que Corbyn Não Foi Arrasado?

Muito recomendado este vídeo de Daniel Hannan que explica porque é que Corbyn teve tão boa votação nas últimas eleições no Reino Unido.  As pessoas votam em quem lhes promete oferecer coisas grátis, mas o dinheiro não cresce nas àrvores e alguém tem que pagar por elas (espera-se sempre que sejam “os outros” a pagar). A austeridade não é uma escolha sádica de políticos, mas uma necessidade de equilibrar as contas públicas.

Jeremy Corbyn e o futuro do Reino Unido (2)

Eleições britânicas: recordando Thatcher e Reagan. Por João Carlos Espada.

Existe depois a explicação dos conservadores-liberais “pró-brexit”, encabeçados por Charles Moore, biógrafo de Thatcher, e Fraser Nelson, director da Spectator. Há várias semanas, justiça lhes seja feita, eles vinham criticando a campanha de Theresa May em diversos pontos importantes. Disseram que ela abandonara o tradicional programa conservador-liberal de mercado livre em troca de um crescente intervencionismo estatal; que abandonara a defesa do comércio livre contra a burocracia europeia, em troca de uma simples defesa nativista das fronteiras; finalmente, que abandonara a defesa de um programa de ideias, em troca de uma obsessiva tónica na sua liderança pessoal.

Pessoalmente, creio que estas eram críticas inteiramente justificadas à campanha eleitoral de Theresa May. Mas, receio ter de voltar a dizer que também elas não servem para explicar a surpreendente votação em Jeremy Corbyn. Ele tinha e tem tudo o que aqueles autores criticaram em Theresa May, só que em doses tóxicas. Por que motivo iriam os eleitores críticos do estatismo de May votar no ultra-estatismo de Corbyn?

Foi Nigel Lawson, antigo ministro das Finanças de Thatcher, que, em meu entender, tocou num ponto nevrálgico. Disse ele no Telegraph de sábado que, se os conservadores começam a fazer um discurso estatista, serão sempre ultrapassados em estatismo pela esquerda estatista. E que, quando se abandona a batalha das ideias em defesa da sociedade aberta, os inimigos da sociedade aberta passam a ser vistos apenas como “puros idealistas”.

UK vote by education level

UK vote by employment status

Grenfell Tower fire

2017 não está definitivamente a ser um bom ano para Londres…

London fire latest: Six confirmed dead in Grenfell Tower as death toll expected to rise

Baby dropped from 10th floor of Grenfell Tower ‘caught by man on ground’

Estoril Political Forum 2017

Estoril Political Forum 2017
26 – 28 June, Hotel Palácio, Estoril
“Defending the Western Tradition of Liberty Under Law”
Programme» Online application form»

Republican House Whip Steve Scalise shot in Virginia

Republican House Whip Steve Scalise, congressional staffer shot in Virginia shooting

Rep. Steve Scalise was shot Wednesday morning in Alexandria, Virginia, a House colleague told CNN, in what sources are calling an apparent “deliberate attack.” A congressional staffer was also shot.

Scalise, a member of the House Republican leadership as the majority whip, appeared to have been shot in the hip and it appeared two Capitol Hill police agents were shot, according to Rep. Mo Brooks, who told CNN he was on deck when the shooting occurred.

The shooting took place at a practice for the GOP congressional baseball team.

Continue reading “Republican House Whip Steve Scalise shot in Virginia”

UK vote by age group

UK vote by socio-economic grade

A banca tradicional vai desaparecer?

“A banca é um reflexo da economia e, por isso, não seria de esperar que tivesse prosperado em Portugal. Mas o problema é estrutural e no mundo, com o aparecimento de novas sociedades financeiras.”

Destaque do meu artigo de hoje no ECO – Economia Online. Uma reflexão sobre a actividade bancária.

Jeremy Corbyn e o futuro do Reino Unido

Britain’s Dark Moment. Por Stephen Daisley.

What makes the Tories’ electoral performance all the more humiliating is the grain of May’s opponent. Jeremy Corbyn was boosted into the Labour leader’s chair in 2015, when students and veteran communists flooded the party’s membership rolls and threw the primary for the ardent socialist. Every indicator, historical and psephological, pointed to a catastrophe should Corbyn lead Labour into an election. That he managed to increase Labour’s vote share and seat tally is undoubtedly a function of the divisions wrought by Brexit and of a chaotic Conservative election campaign that saw the Tories propose punitive entitlements reform on their elderly voter base and the Prime Minister hole up in Downing Street refusing to appear on camera as her polling numbers worsened.

This is only part of the story. The other part, as unavoidable as it is unpalatable, is that Jeremy Corbyn connected with a large segment of the UK population. An eccentric who spent thirty years championing crank causes from the backbenches, Corbyn attracted voters despite his record of sympathizing with and even championing the IRA, Hamas, and Hezbollah. He is no mere romantic radical. Corbyn associated with murderers, anti-Semites and Holocaust-deniers. When the IRA attempted to assassinate Margaret Thatcher in 1984, killing five people in the process, Corbyn invited its leaders to the House of Commons and was later arrested protesting in “solidarity” outside the assassin’s trial. He still refuses to return the $26,000 he accepted from the Iranian regime’s Press TV.

Continue reading “Jeremy Corbyn e o futuro do Reino Unido”

Não é fácil ser proprietário em Portugal…

Proprietários que retirem casas do alojamento local têm de pagar mais-valias

“É uma situação muito ingrata da lei”, resume o jurista António Gaspar Schwalbach, referindo-se à arquitetura fiscal em que o alojamento está enquadrado e que pode levar uma pessoa apagar mais-valias sobre uma casa apenas pelo facto de decidir reafetá-la ao seu uso pessoal. Esta situação, que muitos consideram absurda do ponto de vista fiscal, acaba por travar o processo de legalização de muitos dos que continuam a alugar casas para férias de forma clandestina, e também por travar o cancelamento dos registos dos que tenham decidido retirar-se desta atividade. “Esta questão das mais-valias é um dos maiores obstáculos à legalização do alojamento local”, referiu ao DN/Dinheiro Vivo Eduardo Miranda, presidente da Associação do Alojamento Local em Portugal (ALEP). E é também um dos motivos, adianta, para que alguns dos que desistiram “mantenham o registo e não cancelem a atividade”, porque se não alugar a casa não haverá lugar a tributações.

Continue reading “Não é fácil ser proprietário em Portugal…”

Caminhos para a dívida pública portuguesa

Uma reflexão importante: Ensaio: Que caminhos para a dívida pública portuguesa? Por Joaquim Miranda Sarmento e Ricardo Santos.

Não deixa de ser paradoxal que, sendo a sustentabilidade da dívida pública um dos temas que mais condiciona o nosso presente e o nosso futuro, o seu debate se realize, em regra, de forma superficial e sem sentido de compromisso. Temos pois que criar as condições para que se gere uma solução de compromisso, realista, mas ambiciosa.
Sendo verdade que a redução da dívida é imperiosa e deve ser assumida como uma prioridade, não é menos verdade que não existem soluções milagrosas e que medidas radicais de reestruturação comportam custos económicos e sociais muito elevados. Custos que seriam, aliás, muito superiores aos benefícios de redução da dívida e da despesa com juros.

Assegurar uma trajetória sustentável da dívida pública, num contexto de grande incerteza internacional, é uma tarefa que, sendo muito exigente, está ao nosso alcance: a combinação de saldos primários com excedente em torno de 3% PIB (que deveremos já atingir este ano) e taxas de crescimento nominais acima dos 3%/ano (obtido este ano), permitiria reduzir a dívida pública a um ritmo razoável, e no espaço de 10-15 anos, trazê-la para valores significativamente abaixo de 100% PIB.

(…)

Neste ensaio fazemos uma síntese e analisar as três principais vertentes do documento: primeiro, a caraterização da dívida pública no momento presente; segundo, avaliar possíveis cenários de reestruturação com “hair-cuts” e terceiro, que gestão e soluções existem para reduzir o peso da dívida pública?

Candidaturas IEP-UCP 2017/2018

Mais informações sobre os programas do Instituto de Estudos Políticos da Universidade Católica Portuguesa aqui.

O mundo lunático

Cinco dias inúteis, a crónica de Alberto Gonçalves no Observador.

(…) O sujeito, que não tem vícios nem carro, concluiu o liceu a custo e passou uns meses no curso de Estudos Sindicais (?) do politécnico, condições que prometiam, e cumpriram, carreira radiosa na política. Chegou a deputado em 1983, posição em que se distinguiu dos radicais choninhas pelo apoio eufórico aos bombistas do IRA. Coerente e cosmopolita, o sujeito alargaria mais tarde o apoio aos bombistas do Hamas e do Hezbollah. O sujeito sempre apreciou a livre determinação dos povos, excepto quando, como na Ucrânia, os povos parecem determinar-se para longe da opressão, traquinice cujo castigo aplaude. O sujeito também aprecia o Irão, e em 2014 exigiu que o Ocidente deixasse de “demonizar” aquele regime, o qual aliás lhe pagou 20 mil libras pelos elogios. O sujeito aprecia igualmente Chávez, Castro e qualquer santo que se lhe afigure susceptível de educar a humanidade através da violência e da miséria. O sujeito, escusado dizer, aprecia um Estado zeloso. O que o sujeito não aprecia são os EUA e, sobretudo, Israel, esse território inexplicavelmente repleto de “sionistas”. O sujeito chama-se Jeremy Corbyn e o DN chama-lhe um “rebelde de muitas causas”, quase todas criminosas. Esteve, e talvez ainda esteja, a um pequeno passo de mandar no Reino Unido. Misteriosamente, os “media” ocidentais, tão diligentes a detectar ameaças populistas (ou fascistas), deixaram em paz este particular populista (ou fascista)

Breaking the Bank

The Caixa Geral de Depósitos building in Lisbon (Bruno Alves)

The crisis in Portugal’s biggest bank, Caixa Geral de Depósitos, and how it explains the crisis the country itself has faced in last few years.

The small, remote town of Almeida doesn’t make the news very often. Closer to Spain than to Portugal’s capital city of Lisbon, Almeida lives with all the benefits and evils of the relative isolation that every hinterland town in Portugal either enjoys or must endure. But on April 12, a protest against the upcoming closing of the local branch of Portugal’s State-owned bank, Caixa Geral de Depósitos – usually known as CGD or simply Caixa – caught the media’s attention. CGD was undergoing a restructuring process, that in the coming years will encompass a capital injection of more than €5 billion (2,7 of them directly by the State, a €1 billion perpetual debt bond sale, and €960 million in “Contingent Convertibles”, bonds convertible into equity once a specified event – the “trigger” – occurs, basically amounting to a debt cancelation by the State), a staff reduction plan and the closing of a number of branches throughout the country. Almeida was about to lose its own, and the town’s population wasn’t happy.

If the protesters’ aim was to convince Caixa to reverse course – and it obviously was – they fell short. Fourteen days later, on the eve of the scheduled closing date, about fifty people – including the Deputy Mayor – entered and refused to leave the branch’s premises until the decision to close it was overturned. Outside, just beside the small, welcoming park  where people spend most of their afternoons hiding from the sun, complaining about their health and sharing gossipy details about the neighbors everyone knows, a few more voiced their support. They were mostly elderly, poor people in old, worn-out clothes, some holding canes and one wearing a suit and hat like no one of any other age would. Spotting the crew of one the TV networks, an elderly lady, probably in her 60’s, approached the reporter, and announced: “this will go all the way. The municipal government is committed, the population is committed, this will go all the way”. “If we have to”, she continued, “we’ll go to Lisbon”. “We will go wherever we have to”, the lady said. The only place they didn’t want to have to go to was the nearest remaining Caixa branch, in the neighbouring town of Vilar Formoso. Many of people interviewed by every TV network gave the reason why: Almeida is an aging town, and people don’t want to have to go all the way there to take care of their affairs. Some of them don’t have cars, public transportation is lacking, and having to do regular visits to Vilar Formoso to collect their pensions, check their balance or just to find an excuse to exchange a few words with the familiar lady who works in the bank is not something that is particularly appealing to them.

“We’re being indiscriminated”, one of the protesters said, not realizing that was the wrong word. Another, a woman it her seventies, said the whole thing was all “an inconvenience”. A gentleman said people “felt deceived”. Another explained that the older people in town want help to cash and deposit money, and they don’t trust outsiders to do it. Hours later, as the protest came to an end when Caixa scheduled a meeting for May 2 to discuss the matter, everyone chanted a luta continua! – “the fight won’t stop”.

***

Two months earlier, after being nominated as CGD’s President, Paulo Macedo, a former Health Minister for the 2011-2015 center-right coalition government of PSD and CDS chosen by the current center-left government of the Socialist Party to lead the State-owned bank through its restructuring process, said that the latter “is a great opportunity” that was “being given to us all” to “be a part” of the “institution’s relaunch”, but that it was “also a great responsibility”, as “the country is undertaking a significant investment in Caixa, in a time of scarcer resources, and it will justly demand that the former should be well applied”. His goal, he said, is to make CGD a “solid, profitable and confidence-generating” bank, “which is why”, Macedo warned, “it is time to execute, act, work and for us to focus all our energy in the recapitalization and restructuring of our institution, but also in improving our services to our clients and in creating value, allowing us to face the future with optimism and confidence”.

“If we fail”, he added, “we will hardly be given another similar chance”.

When it was created in 1876 by the government of the day, Caixa was devised – as usual in Portugal, by translating into Portuguese a French model, the Caisse Générale des Dépôts et Consignations – as an instrument to respond to the banking crisis the country had faced and that had put the fulfillment of the State’s financing needs in jeopardy, using private citizens’ savings and the obligatory deposits, whether in cash or sovereign debts bonds, that the State charged people (court bails, taxes), to be applied “in a productive way” – that is, by feeding the budget and the chronically hungry State coffers.

In 1892, however, another bankruptcy hit the country – and CGD – like a meteor. In the previous decades, an emigration wave to Brazil and the money those migrants sent back home gave Portugal some credit in the London and Paris stock markets, which allowed the government to sell debt bonds and get the money for its economic policies of infrastructure spending (and buying off internal political clienteles). But when a republican revolution sent Brazil into turmoil, and the “Brazilians’” money stopped crossing the Atlantic, that credit disappeared. Caixa tried to fulfill at least some of the country’s budgetary needs, without being in a healthy situation itself. Its profits collapsed, but the bank itself didn’t. Once the bankruptcy was behind Portugal’s back – it took a few decades – CGD seemed to come of age – so to speak – escaping with varying degrees of difficulty the turmoil of the seemingly never-ending national political and economic tribulations, and became Portugal’s largest financial institution.

Once António Oliveira Salazar and his dictatorship took over the country, and his scrupulous, frugal budgetary policy jumped away from the pages of the obscure papers he wrote as a reclusive but politically ambitious Professor of the University of Coimbra into governmental acts, Caixa’s usefulness to the holders of political power did not cease to exist, but it did change: it was now meant to loan – to private investors and the State – its money, in order to achieve what Salazar called the country’s “financial regeneration” and its “agricultural, industrial and social transformation” – in other words, to “stimulate” the economy and intervene in the market to manipulate production levels and prices in such a way that would favor the humors and interests of the government and its preferred clienteles. Forty years later, when Salazar became incapacitated and had to – finally, most must have thought and said to those they were confident would not rat them out to the secret police – give up his power and be replaced by his former-protégé-turned-political-rival Marcello Caetano, CGD (by now already labelled a empresa pública, the bureaucratic, legal term for a “State-owned company”) still played this role, and would keep it as the new President of the Council of Ministers engaged in his “modernization” policy.

After the April 25th 1974 coup that overthrew the dictatorship, the revolutionary ecstasy Portugal succumbed to for the ensuing year and a half was not – despite the many efforts of the groups who lead it – enough to make the country go from the hands of a dictatorship to those of another, but it was still able to do some damage. The government, temporarily controlled – or at the very least very heavily influenced – by the Communist Party, nationalized banks, insurance companies and increased salaries for government employees (in 1978, already with the first democratically elected government in office, the price the country had to pay for the adventure was an International Monetary Fund bailout). Caixa kept its role as an instrument of political power in the manipulation of the economy as a whole, for instance in promoting and facilitating access to credit for buying a house. In 1992, CGD became a stock corporation, but the State remained its sole stockholder. One would think such a legal statute would give the bank a larger autonomy from political power (that was, in fact, the stated purpose of categorizing it as such). But that was far from being true. During the cheap, easy credit boom of the 1990’s and early 2000’s, Caixa was a prime agent in the creation of an excessive debt in Portugal, both in the private and State sectors. In loaning money – as other banks did – to people for buying houses in a country where, to make matters worse, the renting market was far from effective, Caixa – and the financial and political systems as a whole – practically forced them to contract a huge debt burden that might have seemed bearable while interest rates were low and the economy thrived, but would become much less so in the years to come, as would the debt incurred by private companies who saw in the booming construction business an opportunity to get rich, and the huge amount of debt government after government kept getting into to finance multiple infrastructure “projects” that were deemed and sold to the public as “strategic” for the country’s “modernization” and economic development.

In 2008, it would all come crashing down.

***

An old CGD ad

The financial and political systems’ infatuation with the housing market was not confined to Portugal. In America, banks and politicians alike engaged in or encouraged what would become known as “subprime” loans – credit given out by the banks to clients who ended up being unable to afford to pay back the loans they were receiving. When many of those borrowers did indeed default on their mortgages, house prices fell as quickly as they had been inflated by the subprime bubble, causing huge losses for the banks that had bet heavily in that market. To make matters worse, many of those loans were “bundled” in so-called “mortgage-backed securities” with “prime”, safer, loans, thus diluting their risk. And because each of those securities were then “bundled” with other securities and then sold to increasingly far-off investors, the more unaware they became of the underlying risk of those products as the further they were in the selling-and-buying chain. The result was that investors in Iceland, Ireland, Greece or Germany – just to stick to the Michael Lewis-reported ones – were, probably without even noticing, financing loans to borrowers in Detroit or somewhere in Tennessee that wouldn’t be repaid. Instead of decreasing the chances of losing the money they were lending to “subprime” borrowers, the “securitization” of those loans by American banks ended up exposing the entire world economy to the risk – and the costs – of that imprudent credit.

By all accounts, Portuguese banks were not among the most affected by that exposure. But slowly, the “subprime” crisis turned into a sovereign debt bonds crisis: as banks needed to be bailed out and the economy stalled, governments all over Europe increased their spending levels, for which they had to borrow more money, in some cases to such a degree that the market’s confidence in those countries’ ability to service their debt reached historic lows, causing the interest rates on their debt bonds to take the exact opposite course, and those countries to no longer being able to finance themselves without a bailout by the IMF.

Portugal was one of those countries. In 2011, the “troika” of the IMF, the European Union and the European Central Bank came to the rescue with a €78 billion bail-out package with €12 billion for the banks to use to recapitalize themselves. They badly needed them. Not only they were the largest funders of the debt splurge the government of the day, led by then-Prime Minister José Sócrates of the Socialist Party, currently under investigation for corruption, tax fraud and money laundering, but the “austerity” prescribed by the “troika” and applied by the PSD/CDS coalition once an election threw Sócrates out of power also meant that there was no government –i.e., taxpayers’ – money for the “public-private-partnerships” in infrastructure Portuguese banks had become accustomed to invest in at almost no risk to themselves, as well as other shady deals. To further complicate things, Portuguese banks were themselves heavily indebted, both to each other and abroad, and so they to felt the noose tightening around their necks.

Only one bank declined the opportunity to use the “troika” billions to replenish their coffers: Banco Espírito Santo, commonly referred to as BES. The choice, as it would later become clear, was not motivated by an enviable healthy condition of the bank or the financial group it was a part of, but to a need to keep its books as far away from the inquisitive eyes and minds of the “troika” officials, as they would reveal – as they later did anyway – the many unlawful schemes BES was involved in. The oldest and largest economic group in Portugal, Espírito Santo’s assets were among nationalized businesses during the revolutionary period. In the 1990’s, as governments began to privatize all the companies that had been nationalized, the “Portuguese political and economic elites”, the economic historian Luciano Amaral explains in his book about the group, “wanted to rebuild national economic groups as a way to compensate them for what had happened”, and proceeded to “reconstitute” them under “monopolist or at best oligopolistic conditions”, designed to make them successful at the expense of anything else, under the belief that the Portuguese economy required successful Portuguese-owned big economic groups. When BES was privatized, Amaral writes, “the number of banks in the market had become practically half of those that existed in 1975”, and “that numbered kept going down until 2000, thanks to a concentration orchestrated between the State and the financial groups”. Not only, he concludes, “was the privatization carried out within a more concentrated market” than the one it existed at the time of the nationalization, it also “did not prevent the continuation of such a concentration nor did it introduce competition factors”. And the same happened in other sectors were the group had important concerns, like telecommunications, oil or electricity. All of them “saw rising profits thanks to a shrinkage of competition” in their respective markets.

When the economy collapsed, so did BES: governments had less money to spend, which also meant less contracts to be handed to BES-owned companies or BES-financed projects; loans that had been granted in the previous, leaner years were now on the verge of default, and, as Amaral writes in his book, the family had, in order to keep the group in its hands, “often used unorthodox management and financing methods” – “unorthodox” here being an euphemism for “fraudulent” (the head of the group, Ricardo Salgado, is now under investigation by the Portuguese judicial system for alleged criminal practices with BES). By the summer of 2014, BES couldn’t keep its troubles at bay any longer, and everything was over: the group was broken up, and BES gave way to Novo Banco – the “New Bank” – which theoretically kept its predecessors “good assets” while the “toxic” ones were thrown into a “bad bank” designed to bury them.

Among the exposed to those “toxic” assets was Caixa. In the summer of 2014, the Lisbon daily Público reported that CGD had €300 million stuck on several companies of the Espírito Santo Group. Almost a year later, it was revealed that in fact Caixa was owed €410 million by those companies. That – together with the fact that the European Union had changed its rules for state bailouts of financial institutions, reducing the likelihood of such operations taking place, thus threatening the future prospects of banks under duress – surely contributed to Fitch – the rating agency – downgrading CGD’s bonds to a “BB-” investment grade just a few days later.

The bad news for Caixa seemed to pile up: in 2013, before the changes to those European rules, it had been granted a substantial – €1.650 billion – loan by the State; in July of 2015, then Prime-Minister Pedro Passos Coelho complained that while other banks – BPI and BCP – had already started to pay their own loans back, CGD wasn’t yet “able to obtain results that would allow it to pay a fraction” of the amount it had borrowed. “I’m worried”, Coelho said, and he was right to be.

By November 2015, Caixa did report a €3,4 million profit in the year’s first nine months. But that figure amounted to a 93% fall from the profits it had earned in the same period of the previous year, and it had only been achieved by selling much of its stake in insurance companies Fidelidade, Cares and Multicare, a source of revenue the bank obviously would not be able to resort to in the future. Once the year was over and the books were properly looked over, it turned out that CGD finished 2015 with a €171 million loss. In the following three months, it would report a €74 million loss, despite a 5,5% cut in operational cuts and a 4,7% cut in personnel costs.

Caixa was suddenly faced with acute and urgent capital needs. It needed not only to begin to repay the loan it had took from the State, but also to comply with the new ECB capital requirements. But by June 2016, the news coming out was that CGD ran the risk of reporting more than €2 billion in non-performing loans to groups like Espírito Santo and Lena (both involved in the investigation concerning Sócrates). “If it was a private company”, Amaral wrote in his Correio da Manhã column, Caixa would have filed for bankruptcy long ago”.

Rumors that the bank would have to fire people and close branches began to circulate. The Prime Minister – no longer Passos Coelho but the current leader of the Socialist government, António Costa – felt the need to publicly state that any recapitalization would be done exclusively with public money. “We’re going to keep Caixa 100% public, 100% state-owned, and 100% financed with the necessary capital to fulfill its mission”, Costa guaranteed. A week later, someone leaked the information that the amount the government “might” have to spend to do what Costa promised would be €5 billion, to “enlarge the financial pillow” to accommodate the impact of non-performing loans. The Treasury State Secretary, Ricardo Mourinho Félix – José Mourinho’s cousin, believe it or not – reassured the unions that although 2500 workers would cease to work for Caixa, none would be fired, but would simply come from the pool of people that would retire anyway or of people that would be eligible for an early-retirement package, but the unions didn’t trust him. To them, it was all a ploy to “erase Caixa’s credibility” so that private banks could “grab” CGD’s share of the market.

Meanwhile, the ECB was far from confident in Caixa’s restructuring plan, finding the €5 billion figure excessive and unaccounted for. In August, the need for that amount of money became clearer, as the bank reported a €205 million loss and a 28,3% increase in non-performing credit exposures. Two weeks later, the plan was approved by the European Commission. Just a few days later, news surfaced that CGD had failed the ECB’s stress tests, as these shown the bank would need €2 billion euros of additional capital to survive the direst scenario anticipated in those tests.

To make matters worse, another crisis hit Caixa. In March 2016, António Domingues of Caixa’s competitor BPI accepted an offer to become CGD’s new president. He did, however, require that he and his team would be exempted from the salary restrictions applied to public administration workers and from the need to disclose their personal financial information to the Constitutional Court. The government accepted those terms, even though – many would and did argue – the law would not allow those terms to be abided for. Once they became public, the government could not contain the controversy and the public outcry against the privilege Domingues and his team had been afforded with. Immediately, Costa tried to backtrack, claiming the government had not acquiesced to Domingues’s request. After months of pressure and turmoil, Domingues got fed up with it all, resigning from his position, clearing the way for Macedo. In the meantime, CGD’s restructuring plan was still waiting to be put in place. By the end of the year, and with Macedo already on board, Caixa would report a €2,7 billion loss.

Last March, CGD managed to sell the perpetual debts bonds the restructuring plan depend on, but only at a 10,75% interest rate. Costa welcomed the outcome, stating the operation had been a “success, first because of its originality, and secondly because it had a demand four times larger than the existing offer”. What the Prime-Minister declined to mention, however, was that it meant that Caixa would have to pay almost €100 million in interest a year, when the profits projected by Macedo and its team for the future are still nothing but wishful thinking. Between January and March, for instance, CGD lost another €39 million, as two different rating agencies – Moody’s and DBRS – advised against investing in the bank.

Macedo was not discouraged, or at least he did not show himself to be in public. On April 12, as the residents of Almeida took to the streets for the first time to protest against the announced closing of Caixa’s local branch, Macedo was speaking before the Portuguese Parliament in Lisbon. “The plan provides an answer to the big issues” concerning the bank, he said: “more solidity, more efficiency, more operational focus”. A state-owned bank, Macedo said, “doesn’t mean it has to lose money”.

Up until now, it still is.

***

Former Prime Minister currently under investigation for tax evasion, money laundering and fraud José Sócrates (António Cruz/ABr)

Even without going further back in History – to the times before the 19th century, back to when the wearers of the Crown held the Kingdom as private property they could dispose of as they wished and use to favor whoever they thought they should – ever since 1851, after the on-and-off-and-on-again civil war that broke after the foundation of the “liberal” constitutional monarchy in 1834 (following another 27 years of intermittent warfare the Portuguese engaged in against both the French and each other), the State played a primary role in determining how wealth was distributed in the country, and to whom. Whether by giving jobs in the public sector to the clienteles of the parties (and even – perhaps especially, those parties’ bigwigs) that took turns in office, by creating tariffs that protected some economic activities from foreign competition, by establishing monopolies that protected some enterprises from national competition, or by channeling the taxpayers’ money (and the debt future taxpayers would have to pay for) into infrastructure projects that filled the pockets of those that were lucky enough to be involved in them or benefited directly from what they had to offer, the State – and the parties that occupied it even if only temporarily – almost singlehandedly decided who would get rich and who would pay (in taxes, higher prices or scarcity of goods) for the latter’s good fortune.

The 1892 bankruptcy put the whole arrangement in jeopardy. In just 18 years, the regime’s inability to share the increasingly diminished spoils of the national treasury around the hungry diners that sat at the budget’s table opened the way to the revolutionaries of the Republic, who from 1910 to 1926 ruled with terror and a strong voracity occupy every job the state had to offer  with its supporters – and, just like their predecessors, themselves – without ever finding a solution to the problem that any Portuguese government has to deal with: how to simultaneously use the power of office to distribute wealth to those who sustain it and keep the public finances in a good enough condition so that a bankruptcy doesn’t preclude them from having anything to distribute.

It was that lack of an answer that brought in Salazar and his dictatorship. Commanding a secret police, he could enforce what we would now call an “austeritarian” fiscal policy, while applying an economic policy that, through protectionist tariffs and the condicionamento industrial – literally, the “industrial constraint” – ensured that a handful of big, politically connected economic groups enjoyed the pleasures of operating in monopolized markets. When Caetano replaced Salazar, the economy was slightly liberalized, but the coition between the government and the orbiting business interests remained basically the same, becoming, in fact, one of the major complaints of those who wished Portugal would become a “normal”, “European”, democratic country. But once democracy did indeed replace Salazar and Caetano’s authoritarian regime, and ended up avoiding being itself replaced by a communist dictatorship – whether such an outcome was ever a realistic possibility or not is a matter of some contention – it too would repeat the cardinal sin of all the regimes that had come before it. From the onset, every party that came into the vicinity of power, both at the national and local levels, raced to fill every available job with the “boys” and “girls” who eagerly waited for them within their ranks, with the bill being paid by those working in the private sector (Henrique Medina Carreira, a former Finance Minister turned pundit, once claimed that 60% of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on tax-collected money for their income, meaning that their living standards are payed for the remaining 40%). As the country joined the European Union – at the time still known as the European Economic Union – and the money from its “structural funds” kept pouring in, successive governments of both the center-left and the center-right kept expanding an insolvent Welfare State that by purporting to provide for those who need it and those who don’t ended up giving too little to the former and too much to the latter – mostly those who were already lucky enough to have been afforded with a public sector job -, and “invested” in bloated, often disastrous infrastructure projects that fattened the bank accounts of the companies contracted to build them – and the banks involved in those deals – but burdened everyone else with ever increasing taxes, necessary to pay for the rising debt levels the country put upon itself.

In Portugal, one often hears those on “the left” saying that “political power” is “held hostage” by “economic power” – big, powerful business interests – while those on “the right” complain that “the government” controls and imprisons “businesses”. But the – sad – truth is that in a country where the State is involved –directly or indirectly – in pretty much every economic area of activity, the market of free interaction between individuals and their respective preferences is replaced by the market of political influence and access, where outcomes are decided not by how much one agent is able to satisfy the wants of its prospective clients, but by who has the phone number of the right Minister, party official, CEO or “fixer”, and whose hand can better scratch the back of the person on the other end of the line. In a country like Portugal, both governments and business interests engage in a symbiotic relationship like that between a zebra and the oxpecker: the business interests that are within government officials’ ears finance their parties and engage in the “projects” those governments wish to promote so they can parade them in front of voters as propaganda in electoral campaigns, and in return, governments allow them to spend more money – that the State will later reimburse them for – than they were supposed to. Those same business interests are granted monopolies and guaranteed rents, like those given to the Espírito Santo group when it was privatized, and governments can say to voters that they helped “Portuguese businesses to remain in Portuguese hands”. Portuguese banks loan money to the State in an irresponsible fashion (reportedly about 80% of their exposure to sovereign risk is to the Portuguese government), and when those same banks reach the verge of bankruptcy, the State bails them out.

Caixa was essential element of this promiscuous relationship. When, after the economy as a whole and the financial system in particular were privatized and liberalized in the 1980’s and 90’s, and the country’s acceptance into the European Monetary System and later into the euro allowed for historically low interest rates, home ownership loans given out by Portuguese banks increased 773% from 1990 to 2000. Governments created incentives to those loans, not only helping banks in expanding their business activities and profits (at least until the crisis broke), but also themselves by creating in the voters’ minds the perception of growing prosperity (largely an illusion, as the fact that a large number of the non-performing loans dragging Portuguese banks down are home ownership loans demonstrates). Caixa, especially being the State-owned bank, was at the forefront of this credit bubble. Similarly, CGD was also very much involved – it was the bank with the largest amount of exposure to them – in the public-private partnerships governments contracted to their favored economic groups that gave the latter huge profits simply through the guarantees the State offered them, and the former the opportunity to both feed the construction bubble and dazzle the voters with big infrastructure “achievements”.

More importantly – and damagingly – Caixa has given governments the means through which to interfere in the economy, and therefore to give money to those they have wanted to give money to, often with the shadiest of purposes. For years, Caixa’s stocks in companies like energy behemoth EDP or telecommunications giant PT were used by governments to circumvent the European Union’s rules regarding the voting power of the State’s “golden shares” in those companies: through Caixa, governments could prevent those companies from doing deals those governments were not fond of, for whatever reason. When the Sonae group tried to buy PT, for instance, Caixa blocked the deal. Years later, PT was found to be involved in a series of dubious deals with BES (and the Sócrates government) which would explain why selling it to a private group not known for being amenable to such arrangements would be something Sócrates would not look kindly to.

In 2007, one of Caixa’s competitors, BCP, was going through an internal dispute. The government, at the time led by Sócrates, allowed Carlos Santos Ferreira – who was leading Caixa – and Armando Vara – a former Socialist Minister and a longtime personal friend of Sócrates, who has since been convicted of corruption charges – to leave CGD for BCP, and at the same time, Caixa loaned a large amount of money to a group of BCP stockholders – more prominently, Joe Berardo – using BCP stock as collateral, in order for them buy more stocks and gain control of the bank and ease Santos Ferreira and Vara’s ascent to power. They did, but years later, Berardo’s debt was too high for him to be able to pay it back, and Caixa had to take the loss. For all intents and purposes, the whole operation amounted to the Sócrates government using Caixa (and, indirectly, the taxpayers’ money that would years later be used to bail it out) to gain control of a private bank. As Jorge Jardim Gonçalves, who was pushed out of BCP by the coup, would later remark, by placing two politically connected people (one of them, Vara, someone whom he knew and was close with for years, and would also be tied to him in many of the scandals he’s being investigated for) Sócrates would be able to add BCP to Caixa – which he controlled by virtue of it being owned by the government – and BES – to which Sócrates was close (a proximity that is now also under investigation), and thus find it easier to loan money to the companies and business interests he’d wish, as well as to the State, to fund his growing need to buy votes with increased public spending without having to raise taxes in such a way that would scare voters away.

In 2006, when Santos Ferreira and Vara were still at Caixa, the bank invested heavily in a resort in Vale do Lobo. The deal was disastrous, resulting both in huge losses connected to Caixa’s 24% of the share of the enterprise, and to the non-performing loans with which CGD had financed the whole thing. Needless to say that Sócrates is also being reportedly investigated for a possible involvement in this deal, and how he and Vara might have profited personally from it. In fact, pretty much every bad deal Caixa is involved in has the Sócrates touch to it. For instance, in 2006, Sócrates wanted to make a big deal out of an announcement of a new factory being built in Sines, a small coastal town in Portugal’s southern region, and even handed out millions in tax benefits to facilitate La Seda’s – the company planning to build the factory – decision. Coincidently or not, Caixa invested in La Seda, and again ended up losing a lot of money in the process. The same happened with a Pescanova factory in Mira that Sócrates proudly used as a propaganda tool and that Caixa helped finance: in the end, Pescanova went bankrupt and Caixa was left holding its trousers in its hand, instead of getting its money back.

***

On May 2, the meeting between Caixa and Almeida’s representatives didn’t take place. The branch closed, and its future is certain: it will stay closed. The town’s people may protest, but they will remain powerless to escape the consequences of CGD’s crisis.

Depending on how things play out in the months and years ahead, the same could be said of the country as a whole. The heavy exposure of Portugal’s banks to their own country’s sovereign debt bonds is not just a symptom of the promiscuous relationship between business interests and governments: it is a dark cloud hanging over the country’s prospects. For now, the economy is growing, as Lisbon and Porto have become a fashionable tourism destination and foreign visitors spend their money in those cities hotels, restaurants and shops. But if for some reason the international economy slows down, Portugal’s will slow down with it, and probably faster than everyone else’s in Europe. If that happens, paying the interests on the debt it already incurred in might become harder, and getting new loans to fund all the spending governments in Portugal need to do might become possible only at impossible-to-endure interest rates. Banks like Caixa might not be able resist another shock like the one some-but-not-all of them were able to back in 2011.

If anything like that happens – and though relatively unlikely, such an outcome is far from impossible – Caixa branches won’t be the only businesses closing, Caixa employees won’t be the only ones losing their jobs, and the whole of Portugal will join the people of Almeida in feeling deceived.

alves.bm@netcabo.pt; @ba_lifeofbruno

Sondagens são uma coisa, eleição outra!

Todos já ouvimos a expressão: “se as eleições fossem hoje, o partido X teria maioria absoluta”. Theresa May também a ouviu e convenceu-se que, convocando eleições antecipadas, teria sua liderança no governo britânico reforçada. Claramente não foi o que aconteceu.

Em Portugal também já se diz que a proto-coligação de esquerdas (“Geringonça”) pode ruir nas próximas eleições legislativas​ porque PS, segundo as sondagens, teria maioria absoluta… se as eleições fossem hoje!!! Até pode ser, mas qualquer prognóstico é, nesta altura, demasiado incerto.

Sondagens são, na maioria das vezes, encaradas como previsões do futuro e não pelo realmente representam: estimativas sobre uma “fotografia” de determinado momento social. Pode nem sequer chegar a ser uma imagem fidedigna do que se tenta representar, tendo em conta erros de amostragem e outros outliers. E, tratando-se de seres humanos, opiniões podem rapidamente mudar. Convém lembrar Heráclito: “nenhum homem entra duas vezes no mesmo rio, porque não é o mesmo rio, nem ele é o mesmo homem”.

Manuel Pinho, Columbia e a EDP

Manuel Pinho professor em Nova Iorque? “Era impossível só com americanos”

Nuno Garoupa recorda um processo semelhante que envolveu a Universidade de Nova Iorque, o Santander e o juiz Baltasar Garzón. Os processos acabaram todos arquivados — quer contra Garzón que era acusado de ter recebido dinheiro de várias empresas, além do Santander, para a sua estadia em Nova Iorque em 2005 e 2006 — como contra na altura o líder do Santander Emilio Botín. A Universidade de Nova Iorque nem se deu ao trabalho de comparecer como testemunha no processo.

As universidades americanas têm cadeiras que são financeiramente apoiadas, mas a escolha dos professores é feita de forma independente pela escola, explica Nuno Garoupa. Casos como o de Manuel Pinho — uma ex-tutela ser paga pelo tutelado para dar aulas — seriam impossíveis envolvendo apenas americanos. Não por serem ilegais mas porque se criaria “burburinho” na comunicação social, com efeitos negativos reputacionais para a universidade. Com os estrangeiros, as universidades norte-americanas têm sido mais permissivas.

Manuel Pinho foi dar aulas para a Universidade de Columbia em Nova Iorque porque foi criada uma cadeira ou cátedra paga pela EDP, empresa que tutelou como ministro da Economia. O caso foi revelado logo em 2010, e o financiamento da EDP estava enquadrado num conjunto de iniciativas pagas pela empresa, como na altura disse a escola de Nova Iorque quando questionada.

Uma artimanha como qualquer outra

John McDonnell, o ministro-sombra das finanças dos Trabalhistas, afirmou na Sky News (sem link) que Theresa May deve resignar. Motivo: como não conseguiu a maioria absoluta, não tem condições para governar. Além de esquecer que Jeremy Corbyn também não resignou quando em 2016 perdeu, e perdeu de forma esmagadora, à pergunta de um jornalista sobre como é que os Trabalhistas, com menos deputados, têm melhores condições que os Conservadores para formar governo, McDonnell responde que as políticas do seu partido são populares, e por isso e apenas por isso, muitos deputados não terão dúvidas em votar a seu favor.

O argumento é antigo, e lamento que o jornalista não lhe tenha perguntado como é que sendo tão popular o programa trabalhista não ganhou o voto do povo, usa a técnica de tornar objectivo o que é subjectivo. Assim, uma medida é boa porque nossa, uma eleição ganha-se não porque se tem mais votos mas porque os resultados foram acima das expectativas, e que as sondagens são mais precisas que o voto (uma técnica dos apoiantes da geringonça em Portugal). Foi assim que Corbyn e companhia tomaram conta do Labour party e é assim que pretendem tomar conta do Reino Unido.

(Correcção: Corbyn perdeu em 2016 e não em 2015, conforme inicialmente referido). Obrigado, Bruno Alves.