Consequências do Brexit
Em boa companhia com o Francisco Pereira Coutinho e com a Emelin de Oliveira, estarei em Santarém, no próximo Sábado, a dizer umas coisas sobre o Brexit. Não estou certo de que vá dizer algo de muito substantivo ou até relevante, muito menos acertado. Estou, portanto, no registo ideal para falar deste tema.
Alianças que não se desfazem
I have an anouncement to make to the House arising out of the Treaty signed between this country and Portugal in the year 1373 between His Majesty King Edward III and King Ferdinand and Queen Eleanor of Portugal. This Treaty was reinforced in various forms by Treaties of 1386, 1643, 1654, 1660, 1661, 1703 and 1815 and in a secret declaration of 1899. In more modern times, the validity of the old Treaties was recognised in the Treaties of Arbitration concluded with Portugal in 1904 and 1914. Article I of the Treaty of 1373 runs as follows: “In the first place we settle and covenant that there shall be from this day forward … true, faithful, constant, mutual and perpetual friendships, unions, alliances and needs of sincere affection and that as true and faithful friends we shall henceforth, reciprocally, be friends to friends and enemies to enemies, and shall assist, maintain and uphold each other mutually, by sea and by land, against all men that may live or die.”This engagement has lasted now for over 600 years and is without parallel in world history. I have now to announce its latest application. At the outset of the war the Portuguese Government, in full agreement with His Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom, adopted a policy of neutrality with a view to preventing the war spreading into the Iberian Peninsula. The Portuguese Government have repeatedly stated, most recently in Dr. Salazar’s speech of 27th April, that the above policy is in no way inconsistent with the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance which was re-affirmed by the Portuguese Government in the early days of the war.
His Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom, basing themselves upon this ancient Alliance, have now requested the Portuguese Government to accord them certain facilities in the Azores which will enable better protection to be provided for merchant shipping in the Atlantic. The Portuguese Government have agreed to grant this request, and arrangements, which enter into force immediately, have been concluded between the two Governments regarding (1) the conditions governing the use of the above facilities by His Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and (2) British assistance in furnishing essential material and supplies to the Portuguese armed forces and the maintenance of the Portuguese national economy. The Agreement concerning the use of facilities in the Azores is of a temporary nature only, and in no way prejudices the maintenance of Portuguese sovereignty over Portuguese territory. All British Forces will be withdrawn from the Azores at the end of hostilities. Nothing in this Agreement affects the continued desire of the Portuguese Government, with which His Majesty’s Government have declared themselves in full sympathy, to continue their policy of neutrality on the European mainland and thus maintain a zone of peace in the Iberian Peninsula.
In the view of His Majesty’s Government, this Agreement should give new life and vigour to the Alliance which has so long existed between the United Kingdom and Portugal to their mutual advantage. It not only confirms and strengthens the political guarantees resulting from the Treaties of Alliance, but also affords a new proof of Anglo-Portuguese friendship and provides an additional guarantee for the development of this friendship in the future. On the conclusion of these negotiations my right hon. friend the Foreign Secretary, who has, I think, conducted them with the very greatest skill and patience, has exchanged most cordial messages with the Portuguese President of the Council. In his message, my right hon. friend affirmed his conviction that the facilites now granted by the Portuguese Government would greatly contribute to the effective defence of our shipping and thus prove an important factor in shortening the war. He added that the Agreement would give fresh vitality to the ancient Alliance and enhance the close and friendly relations which have so long subsisted between Portugal and Great Britain. In replying to this message, Dr. Salazar stated that he shared the hope that the facilities granted by Portugal to her Ally would help to bring about greater safety for shipping in the Atlantic and that he trusted that this new proof of Portugal’s loyalty to her traditions would fortify the secular Alliance and serve to draw still closer the bonds of friendship between the two peoples.
I take this opportunity of placing on record the appreciation by His Majesty’s Government, which I have no doubt is shared by Parliament and the British nation, of the attitude of the Portuguese Government, whose loyalty to their British Ally never wavered in the darkest hours of the war.
Churchill nos Commons, Outubro de 1943
Não faltarão em 2017, e daqui em diante, oportunidades para continuar a trilhar estes caminhos conjuntos. Godspeed!
O resultado mais previsível da vitória do Brexit no referendo do Reino Unido é o de apertar com quem falha as metas dos tratados. Afinal, a curto prazo pelo menos, é a forma de apaziguar outras ameaças de cisão, mais a Norte e a Leste.
Aguardemos, a concretizar-se, a iniciativa referendária do Bloco.
As odds do Brexit nos mercados de apostas
Para quem está confiante de que o Reino Unido vai permanecer na UE, então uma posição longa em libras e no FTSE100 será uma aposta interessante.
Leitura complementar: Should I stay or should I go now? (2)
Should I stay or should I go now? (2)
É fundamental para a Europa poder contar com a sanidade e até com algum cinismo britânico, importante freio dos sonhos desmedidos de alguns burocratas europeus. E, do ponto de vista britânico, também faz sentido que o Reino Unido permaneça na UE. O impacto económico negativo de uma saída da UE seria considerável, não obstante o excesso de intervenções e regulamentações que existem na UE — que, lá está, o Reino Unido seria fundamental para contrabalançar. Remeto esta conversa para um outro artigo.
Hoje, debruço-me sobre o interessante artigo do Jorge Costa, apenas estendendo-o com a visão dos mercados de apostas quanto à questão Leave vs Remain. Se as opinion polls são muito ambivalentes, dando resultados mistos, os mercados de apostas — onde, mais do que a palavra, se mete o guito — são contundentes: as odds do Leave ganhar são quase de 1 para 4. Ou seja, metade dos valores projectados nas sondagens.
Por exemplo, a skyBET paga 2.25 pounds por cada pound no Leave, e apenas 4/11 cents por cada pound em Stay. Esta tendência verifica-se em todas as casas de apostas.
A evidência empírica sugere que para eventos convencionais, que não sejam afectados por black swans, os mercados de apostas são mais eficazes a prever o resultado do que as sondagens, onde muitos respondem por vezes de forma provocatória, desfasada da verdadeira intenção de voto. Lá diz o adágio, put your money where your mouth is.