A convenção republicana correu francamente bem a Trump, mas a campanha de Hillary terá oportunidade de rebater com a convenção democrata e, em qualquer caso, falta ainda muito tempo.
Neste momento, o dado que me parece mais interessante nas sondagens mais recentes são os very high negatives de Hillary Clinton (isto não deve ter ajudado mesmo nada à já profundamente negativa imagem que Hillary tem junto de grande parte do eleitorado), superando inclusivamente os de Trump em muitos segmentos.
Tudo está em em aberto: Donald Trump bounces into the lead
Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.
There hasn’t been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN’s polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
The new findings mark Trump’s best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump’s new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump’s convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.