In the worst-case scenario, radical budget cuts would mean no more cohesion funds in most of Western Europe.
Cutting the post-Brexit budget by a sum approximately equivalent to the U.K.’s current share (of 12.5 percent, or 14 percent if you don’t take the rebate into account) would mean halting funding for Western European countries from the EU’s regional aid program, according to a study carried out by the Commission’s regional affairs department (DG Regio).
Under such a scenario, the EU would be able to provide “support for less developed regions only,” says the study, obtained by POLITICO. That means only the poorest countries in the EU, and regions with a GDP per capita of less than 75 percent of the EU average, would continue to get EU funding.
“Support for Germany and mainland France would be discontinued,” the paper says. Benelux and Scandinavian countries, Ireland and Austria would no longer receive any money under the EU’s main subsidies regime. (French overseas regions such as Guiana would be an exception).
Outside of Eastern Europe, only Cyprus, Greece and Portugal and the southern regions of Italy and Spain would continue to have access to EU “cohesion funds,” which currently account for roughly a third of the EU budget.