A propósito do meu post de ontem tive uma muito interessante discussão com um leitor do nosso Blog (ver pf os comentários ao post “Sr. ministro, o barril de petróleo já está nos 37,25 Dólares”) sobre as bases em que se fundamentaram a subida do valor do ISP publicada em portaria do dia 11 de Fevereiro.
Eu acho que o preço do barril de petróleo irá subir depois de ter caído mais de 75% em mais de 3 anos (desde um recorde superior a 120 USD por barril) enquanto que quem elaborou o orçamento do Estado, acha que a tendência é de sustentada queda (talvez para valores, quem sabe, abaixo de 20 USD em que quase só a Arábia Saudita consegue produzir com lucro, como alguns bancos de investimento já escreveram neste ano).
A minha experiência mostra que a retirada de produção marginal não rentável de uma commodity como está, conduz normalmente a uma subida dos preços e o preço marginal da produção do barril de petróleo em várias zonas do mundo (Brasil, EUA, Venezuela , etc) supera os 50 USD. O anúncio de fechos de oil rigs nos EUA têm sido constantes nos últimos 12 meses e o cancelamento de projectos e expansões de capacidade foram incontáveis.
Como sempre os mercados dar-nos-ão (ou não) razão, mas assentar previsões orçamentais do ISP e declarações públicas de que se baixará o valor do Imposto Sobre Produtos Petrolíferos com base nestas tendências passadas tem um nome para algumas pessoas, que gostam de pensar diferente : herd behaving ou na terminologia portuguesa , comportamento de rebanho.
Vejam a título de mera curiosidade a notícia publicada hoje pela Reuters.
Asia to see first gasoline squeeze in more than 15 years -Reuters
SINGAPORE, March 3 (Reuters) – Cheap oil and strong car sales are driving demand growth for gasoline across Asia, threatening to open up the region’s first shortage for the motor fuel in more than 15 years.
Car sales are soaring in China and India, where a combined 3 million new cars come to market every month, while refineries are shutting down in Australia and Taiwan.
That is expected to open an average annual deficit this year in Asia of 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline that could widen to 90,000 barrels bpd by 2017, consultancy FGE said.
A tightening gasoline market would coincide with an expected late 2016 to early 2017 puncture of a global crude glut, lending support to a recovery in oil prices LCOc1 CLc1 that are still down nearly 70 percent from mid-2014 levels.
“We expect auto sales in China to grow 6.5 percent in 2016, improving from 4.6 percent in 2015,” said Yasmina Serghini, a senior credit officer with ratings agency Moody’s, in a note.
The car sales will grow mainly due to the halving of a 10 percent purchase tax on passenger vehicles with small engines and supportive monetary policy from Beijing, she said.
FGE expects the gasoline supply gap to widen to 160,000 bpd in 2018. Consultancy JBC Energy sees a smaller shortfall of 107,000 bpd in 2018, up from 71,000 bpd next year, pegging total Asian demand for the fuel at nearly 6.8 million bpd in 2017 and almost 7 million bpd the following year.
Although analysts expect China’s car sales to slow in 2017 as the auto tax break expires, the increased sales from past years and strong sales in India are still expected to push up gasoline demand and profit margins for the fuel.
“Gasoline remains the most (profitable) product … with robust growth seen across all or a majority of the countries in Asia,” said Sri Paravaikkarasu, senior consultant and downstream specialist for Asia with FGE.
CHINA STOPS FLOODING THE MARKET
Still, though a flip to a deficit is expected this year, Asia for now is mired in oversupply that has left storage tanks filled to the brim.
Gasoline margins GL92-SIN-CRK dropped below $6 a barrel to near 13-month lows last month, after Chinese exports surged to 880,000 tonnes (7.5 million barrels) in December, nearly double the average monthly shipments for January-November.
“Chinese exports spiked in December as refiners were likely rushing to capture the strong margin and to meet their 2015 export quotas,” said an industry source based in China.
But China’s exports are dropping back again as domestic demand for gasoline grows. January’s exports of the fuel from the world’s second largest economy fell to a two-month low of about 593,000 tonnes (just over 5 million barrels).
The drop – cutting availability across the region – comes as demand is set to rise in the northern hemisphere’s so-called summer driving season and during the Muslim festival month of Ramadan in June.
One risk that could still undermine Asian gasoline demand is a regional economic slowdown led by China. “China made up … 70 percent of global gasoline growth (in 2015),” Morgan Stanley said this week in a research note.
While the bank said it was too early to predict 2016 trends, Morgan Stanley said China’s December gasoline demand data had been “particularly worrisome”.