“France wasn’t doing so well under the de facto socialist Nicolas Sarkozy, and it seems that things are looking even worse now that the de jure socialist Francois Hollande is in charge.”
I’m wondering when the pessimism will spread to investors. France recently lost its triple-A credit rating, but the rating agencies don’t do a good job, so I think it’s much more important to look at the prices of credit default swaps.
In other words, how much does it cost for an investor to insure debt from the French government? According to this CNBC site, France isn’t viewed as being as creditworthy as nations such as Switzerland, Germany, and the United States, but it is closer to those countries than it is to Spain, Italy, or Portugal.
This is just a guess on my part, but I think France is reaching the point where investors are suddenly going to get concerned about the government’s ability to fulfill its promises.
If Hollande follows through on his threat to impose a “patriotic” 75-percent tax rate, for example, that could be the trigger that makes the bond market a lot more skittish. Particularly since it will result in fewer rich people in France.
Carregar em quem produz e cria valor (75%!) para atirar o dinheiro a quem calha – por coincidência, geralmente amigos da cúpula do poder – para estimular o consumo. A diferença, soma-se à dívida.
Eu sou Economista e portanto tenho a certeza que isto não resulta, mas a minha questão é: será que é mesmo necessário um curso de Economia para perceber que uma situação destas tem de rebentar mais tarde ou mais cedo?
Entretanto, aceitam-se apostas sobre quando é que os juros exigidos à França vão ultrapassar os 7%.