E o vencedor foi…

Wolfgang Munchau rejeita a tese que a Alemanha tenha cedido em toda à linha, na última cimeira à pretensões da Espanha e Itália.

“The real victor in Brussels was Merkel” de Wolfgang Munchau (Financial Times)

Mario Monti faced down the German chancellor and won the battle. He will survive a few more weeks or months in politics. It was clever of him to threaten a veto on something Angela Merkel badly needed. He had her in the corner. It was an example of classic EU diplomacy.

But this was only the foreground spectacle. If you look behind the curtain, you will find that, for Italy at least, nothing has changed at all.(…)

The real constraint for ESM bond purchases had less to do with the rules than with the overall size limit of the ESM. It has a lending capacity of €500bn – and that has not changed. No matter how you twist and turn it, the ESM is simply not big enough. It will inject equity into Spanish banks. It will need to refinance the programme for Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. It will soon have to cope with Cyprus and, who knows, maybe Slovenia as well. A full-scale programme for Spain still looks likely. I cannot see how you can fit Spain under the umbrella, plus Italian bond purchases(…)

Mr Monti may have secured the right kind of deal politically but to solve the ESM’s size problem he really should have insisted on a banking licence. With that, the ESM could have leveraged its lending ceiling to a more realistic level. It will not be able to do this now.

This is why I believe the real winner of last week’s summit was not Mr Monti but Ms Merkel after all. She managed to keep Germany’s liabilities unchanged. Someone will have to explain to me how we can have no change to Germany’s overall liabilities, nor of ECB policies, and yet Italy and Spain can now be safe when they were not safe a week ago

2 pensamentos sobre “E o vencedor foi…

  1. JS

    Para quem gosta, duas (2) opiniões fora das avaliações tipo futebol, “e o vencedor foi”: “Monti ganhou e Merkel perdeu…” 🙂

    A- No “of two mids.com”:
    http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly12/EU-death-spiral6-12.html
    “Sorry, Bucko, Europe Is Still in a Death Spiral (July 2, 2012)
    Replacing old impaired debt with new impaired debt does not generate growth. Borrowing more money will not reverse financial death spirals.”
    Ponto 14 no “of two minds…” será a única e final solução ?

    B- Ou ainda:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml
    “If I were the Germans, if I were running Germany, I would have abandoned the eurozone last week…”

  2. Paulo Pereira

    O Munchau tem razão. A única solução para a Zona Euro é a intervenção maciça do BCE ou o equivalente em emissão de Eurobonds.

    O resto são trocos, num PIB de 15 Triliões e com crédito de 200% do PIB.

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