“1. Barring a “miracle” (…) Greece will almost certainly have to activate collective action clauses to get sufficient participation in the debt swap, and the ISDA has said all along that:
the use of [CACs] to effect a reduction in coupon or principal or one of the other events set out in the definition of the Restructuring Credit Event could trigger [a credit event] if the other requirements of the Restructuring Credit Event were met (for example decline in creditworthiness), as its effect would be to bind all holders of the relevant debt.
2. It is prudent for ISDA to be prepared in the event that a credit event is determined to have occurred.
That was the declaration yesterday from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which is the body that officially decides when a “credit event” has occured, and credit default swaps (CDSs) paid out.
In fact, the ISDA is so prepared that it has drawn up a list of “potential deliverable obligations“ that market participants “reasonably believe are likely to be delivered into standard credit default swap contracts”.
In other words, financial institutions have submitted to the ISDA a list of bonds they think are covered by CDS insurance. These bonds will be reviewed by the ISDA if a “credit event” occurs – although the ISDA warned that:
Inclusion of an obligation in the list does not imply that the contributor, ISDA or the EMEA Determinations Committee has verified that the obligation actually is deliverable under the terms of a standard credit default swap contract“. (fonte)
Em resumo: esta notável trapalhada grega vai servir para saber se os credit default swaps ainda valem alguma coisa ou são apenas uma pilha de contratos assinados em papel molhado (como o Ricardo já tinha notado). Saber isto vai permitir-nos também saber se ainda existe um mercado financeiro internacional digno do nome.