The paper concludes that the probability of default by the GSEs is extremely small. Given this, the expected monetary costs of exposure to GSE insolvency are relatively small — even given very large levels of outstanding GSE debt and even assuming that the government would bear the cost of all GSE debt in the case of insolvency. For example, if the probability of the stress test conditions occurring is less than one in 500,000, and if the GSEs hold sufficient capital to withstand the stress test, the implication is that the expected cost to the government of providing an explicit government guarantee on $1 trillion in GSE debt is less than $2 million. To be sure, it is difficult to analyze extremely low-probability events, such as the one embodied in the stress test. Even if the analysis is off by an order of magnitude, however, the expected cost to the government is still very modest.
O que acima se transcreve é o abstract de um paper de 2002 em que se diz que as probabilidades do Fannie Mae e o Freddie Mac falirem era extremamente reduzida. Pois. Os seus autores foram o conhecido e mui aclamado Joseph Stiglitz e os menos mediaticos mas não menos importantes Jonathan Orszag e Peter Orszag. Embora Stiglitz ainda o liste no seu CV o paper encontra-se desaparecido e em parte incerta.
(via EconLog)
Pedro Sette-Câmara
André Azevedo Alves
Carlos Guimarães Pinto
Helder Ferreira
Bruno Garschagen
João Luís Pinto
LA
Bruno Alves
Miguel Botelho Moniz
ruicarmo
Miguel Noronha
Elizabete Dias
António Costa Amaral (AA)
LT
Rui Oliveira
BZ
dos ∫antos
André Abrantes Amaral
planca12
rui a.
Rodrigo Adão da Fonseca
Adolfo Mesquita Nunes
Michael Seufert
Luciano
Carlos M. Fernandes
Maria João Marques
jtcb
Nuno Branco
elisabetejoaquim
filipeabrantes
Tomás Belchior
Bruno Gonçalves
Ricardo G. Francisco
Tiago Loureiro
Ricardo Campelo de Magalhães
Filipe Faria
Ricardo Arroja
Ricardo Lima
Não é assim tão incerta. Podem encontrar o paper aqui:
http://hotair.cachefly.net/images/2009-03/orszag-fanniemae.pdf
Sempre ao vosso dispor,
LA-C
Comentário por LA-C — Novembro 9, 2009 @ 13:19
Gracias!
Comentário por Miguel — Novembro 9, 2009 @ 13:57