“Tired of high commodities prices? Blame the Fed” de David Berman
In trying to explain the latest leg of the commodities boom, Merrill Lynch has drawn up a list of usual suspects and crossed them off one by one. Derivatives: Nope. Index investing: Uh-uh. Speculators: No way.
On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve – the same central bank currently complaining about inflation that has risen as a result of higher food and energy prices – could be the source of the latest upswing, thanks to interest rates that are currently lower than the rate of inflation.
“Looking back 30 years, we find that a 1-per-cent reduction in real interest rates results in a 17.5-per-cent increase in spot commodity prices 10 months later,” Francisco Blanch, commodity strategist at Merrill Lynch, said in a note to clients. “This estimate suggests that loose monetary policy has played a much more important role than speculators in the recent commodity price rally.”
The low interest rates mean that producers (mostly governments like Saudi Arabia) have an incentive to keep oil and mineral deposits in the ground, since they can’t get a very juicy return on their investments in other assets.
“With real interest rates coming down during the last year, the chances of large supply increases are slim, suggesting that the global oil market will likely remain tight and commodity prices will stay resilient to a potential slowdown in the global economy,” Mr. Blanch said
LEITURAS COMPLEMENTARES: “An Explanation for Soaring Commodity Prices” e “Fed Modesty Regarding Its Role in High Commodity Prices” de Jeffrey Frankell; “Exploding commodity prices, lax monetary policy, and sovereign wealth funds” de Guillermo Calvo
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Durante muitos anos as taxas de juro foram inferiores a taxa de inflacao, sem que isso tivesse provocado quaqlquer subida do preco das commodities.
Logo, nao pode ser essam so por si, a explicacao.
Aliasm, hoje em dia, e ao contrario do que aconteceu no passado, as taxas de juro na zona euro estao SUPERIORES a taxa de inflacao, pelo que, por esta logica, nao se justificaria que os precos das commodities em euros subissem.
Comentário por Luis Lavoura — Junho 24, 2008 @ 16:13
No passado recente, as pessoas eram obrigadas (na Europa) a investir em acoes e obrigacoes, porque as taxas de juro estavam de tal forma baixas que nao compensavam a inflacao.
Hoje em dia, com a taxa eduribor a 5% e a inflacao a 4%, compensa investir em depositos a prazo, mesmo apos o imposto de 20%.
Ou seja, e falso afirmar que os detentores de capital nao encontram hoje aplicacao lucrativa para ele. Qualquer deposito a prazo num banco e hoje, pelo menos marginalmente, lucrativo – ao contrario daquilo que acontecia ha uns 5 anos atras.
Comentário por Luis Lavoura — Junho 24, 2008 @ 16:16
“Durante muitos anos as taxas de juro foram inferiores a taxa de inflacao, sem que isso tivesse provocado quaqlquer subida do preco das commodities.”
Se tivesse lido o artigo do Frankel sabia que isto aconteceu no passado:
“A decrease in real interest rates has the opposite effect, lowering the cost of carrying inventories, and raising commodity prices, as happened in the 1970s, and again during 2001-2004″
E, já agora, veja este gráfico.
“Logo, nao pode ser essam so por si, a explicacao.”
E não é o único facto mas é um dos grandes determinantes do preço das “commodities”.
Comentário por Miguel — Junho 24, 2008 @ 16:49