Do recente artigo recomendado em anterior post de AAAlves retiramos o seguinte excerto (meus destaques):
Duffy: “Can you tell us about NASA’s Aqua satellite, because I understand some of the data we’re now getting is quite important in our understanding of how climate works?”
Marohasy: “That’s right. The satellite was only launched in 2002 and it enabled the collection of data, not just on temperature but also on cloud formation and water vapour. What all the climate models suggest is that, when you’ve got warming from additional carbon dioxide, this will result in increased water vapour, so you’re going to get a positive feedback. That’s what the models have been indicating. What this great data from the NASA Aqua satellite … (is) actually showing is just the opposite, that with a little bit of warming, weather processes are compensating, so they’re actually limiting the greenhouse effect and you’re getting a negative rather than a positive feedback.”
Duffy: “The climate is actually, in one way anyway, more robust than was assumed in the climate models?”
Marohasy: “That’s right … These findings actually aren’t being disputed by the meteorological community. They’re having trouble digesting the findings, they’re acknowledging the findings, they’re acknowledging that the data from NASA’s Aqua satellite is not how the models predict, and I think they’re about to recognise that the models really do need to be overhauled and that when they are overhauled they will probably show greatly reduced future warming projected as a consequence of carbon dioxide.”
Sobre os dados do referido satélite, no site da NASA temos o seguinte artigo de 2004 (meus destaques):
A NASA-funded study found some climate models might be overestimating the amount of water vapor entering the atmosphere as the Earth warms. Since water vapor is the most important heat-trapping greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, some climate forecasts may be overestimating future temperature increases.
(…)
Some climate scientists have claimed atmospheric water vapor will not increase in response to global warming, and may even decrease. General circulation models, the primary tool scientists use to predict the future of our climate, forecast the atmosphere will experience a significant increase in water vapor.
(…)
In most computer models relative humidity tends to remain fixed at current levels. Models that include water vapor feedback with constant relative humidity predict the Earth’s surface will warm nearly twice as much over the next 100 years as models that contain no water vapor feedback.
No entanto, nos últimos 4 anos não recordo ver, ouvir ou ler qualquer notícia sobre o facto de determinados modelos climáticos sobrestimarem, em relação a outros, o aquecimento do planeta em 100%. E de que dados empíricos recolhidos por satélite da NASA desmentir tais conclusões.
PS: ano e meio atrás designei como ambientalismo digital a inabalável fé nos resultados de modelos matemáticos que tentam recriar um sistema tão complexo como o clima, apesar da habitual falibilidade em experiências com simplificados “climas artificiais”.
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http://nacionalistas.wordpress.com/2008/04/01/o-bolhao-e-nosso-o-bolhao-e-do-povo/
Comentário por nacionalistas — Abril 1, 2008 @ 07:52