Discordo de uma boa parte deste artigo de Gwyn Prins, da LSE, e Steve Rayne, de Oxford, mas a sua publicação na Nature é já um considerável progresso no difícil combate contra a irracionalidade dos eco-alarmistas em meios populares de divulgação científica.
É particularmente relevante a incorporação de alguns dos argumentos do importante artigo Clumsy solutions for a complex world: The case of climate change, publicado em 2006 na Public Administration.O artigo de Prins e Rayne constitui assim, tanto quanto é do meu conhecimento, a primeira tentativa de transmitir essas ideias num meio de divulgação científica para um público menos preparado e especializado – mas mais amplo – como o universo de leitores da Nature.
Destaco além disso a denúncia inequívoca do desastroso Protocolo de Quioto e o destaque dado à adaptação (ainda que por uma via que me parece errada): Time to ditch Kyoto.
Kyoto has failed in several ways, not just in its lack of success in slowing global warming, but also because it has stifled discussion of alternative policy approaches that could both combat climate change and adapt to its unavoidable consequences. As Kyoto became a litmus test of political correctness, those who were concerned about climate change, but sceptical of the top-down approach adopted by the protocol were sternly admonished that “Kyoto is the only game in town”. We are anxious that the same mistake is not repeated in the current round of negotiations.
Already, in the post-Kyoto discussions, we are witnessing that well-documented human response to failure, especially where political or emotional capital is involved, which is to insist on more of what is not working: in this case more stringent targets and timetables, involving more countries. The next round of negotiations needs to open up new approaches, not to close them down as Kyoto did.
Economic theory recognizes the futility of throwing good money after bad. In politics, however, sunk costs are often seen as political capital or as an investment of reputation and status. So we acknowledge that those advocating the Kyoto regime will be reluctant to embrace alternatives because it means admitting that their chosen climate policy has and will continue to fail. But the rational thing to do in the face of a bad investment is to cut your losses and try something different.
Pedro Sette-Câmara
André Azevedo Alves
Carlos Guimarães Pinto
Helder Ferreira
Bruno Garschagen
João Luís Pinto
LA
Bruno Alves
Miguel Botelho Moniz
ruicarmo
Miguel Noronha
Elizabete Dias
António Costa Amaral (AA)
LT
Rui Oliveira
BZ
dos ∫antos
André Abrantes Amaral
planca12
rui a.
Rodrigo Adão da Fonseca
Adolfo Mesquita Nunes
Michael Seufert
Luciano
Carlos M. Fernandes
Maria João Marques
jtcb
Nuno Branco
elisabetejoaquim
filipeabrantes
Tomás Belchior
Bruno Gonçalves
Ricardo G. Francisco
Tiago Loureiro
Ricardo Campelo de Magalhães
Filipe Faria
Ricardo Arroja
Ricardo Lima
